Italy welcome Belgium to the Stadio Olimpico for their 2026/27 UEFA Nations League (UNL) opener, with both sides seeking early momentum in League A under new head coaches.
Match News and Current Form
Roberto Mancini, in charge of the national team for a second time, faces the daunting task of restoring belief after Italy missed out on a third consecutive FIFA World Cup. Following their latest qualification heartbreak, the Azzurri experimented with youth under interim leadership in June, securing 1-0 friendly victories over Luxembourg and Greece. Results on paper look stable with just two defeats in their last 11 matches (W9), including a penalty shootout loss to Bosnia and Herzegovina, yet the national mood remains somewhat downbeat as supporters demand a clear identity. In the previous UNL campaign, Italy reached the quarter-finals before a 5-4 aggregate defeat to Germany, after starting with four wins in five games (D1).
Belgium enter the new UNL cycle under the recently appointed Mark van Bommel reasonably high on confidence after reaching the World Cup quarter-finals, where they lost 2-1 to eventual champions Spain. That result represents the Red Devils’ only defeat in their last 19 matches (W12, D6), but despite their strong form on the global stage, they will be looking to make amends in this competition. In the previous edition, Belgium endured a difficult group campaign, needing a dramatic 4-3 comeback victory on aggregate over Ukraine in the promotion/relegation play-offs just to preserve their League A status.
Head-to-Head History
Italy have won four of their last five meetings with Belgium (D1), a run which includes their last three UNL H2Hs (W2, D1). Belgium's last victory over the Azzurri came in a friendly in November 2015 (3-1).
Hot Stats and Streaks
Five of Italy’s last six matches featured under 2.5 goals in normal time.
Italy won four of their last five home games without conceding.
Five of Belgium’s last six matches saw both teams score.
Six of Belgium’s last seven games saw the opener arrive inside the first 30 minutes.
Key Players to Watch and Missing Players
After finding the net in three consecutive Serie A matches for the first time, Daniel Maldini will be looking to replicate that form for Italy having netted the match opener in four of his last six scoring appearances. Charles De Ketelaere has scored his last three international goals before half-time, and was on target on his competitive debut for Belgium against Italy in the UNL - a 2-1 third-place play-off defeat in October 2021.
Federico Dimarco and Bryan Cristante have withdrawn from Italy’s squad through injury, which is why Belgium’s Amadou Onana was unavailable for selection.
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Betting Analysis
Given Belgium’s consistency, backing the visitors in the double chance market looks like a sensible selection here.
Author: Tomáš Vlasák