This UEFA Champions League (UCL) league phase fixture sees free-scoring Real Madrid looking to extend a record-equalling scoring run against RB Leipzig, whose struggles on the road make this a dangerous time to visit the Bernabéu.
Match News and Current Form
Madrid enter this fixture on a three-match winning run, following up their remarkable late comeback against Roma on matchday two (W 4-3) with Sunday’s more straightforward 4-1 win over Sevilla. Los Blancos are building useful momentum having won both UCL matches this term and all six fixtures at the Bernabéu since José Mourinho’s return, and stretching that record here would be perfect preparation for this weekend’s El Clásico. The 15-time European champions should be confident of doing so having netted in each of their last 44 UCL home fixtures, the joint-longest run in the competition’s history, so there’s plenty of reason to expect more goals here.
Leipzig’s games this season have also produced plenty of scoring with six goals coming across their first two UCL fixtures (W1, L1) and seven during Sunday’s thumping defeat to Bayern Munich (L 6-1). Head coach Martín Demichelis admitted the club owed supporters an apology, with the Red Bulls now having lost their last four away games while conceding 15 goals. Back-to-back UCL wins for the first time since November 2023 therefore look unlikely given they’ve also won just two of their last 12 UCL fixtures (D1, L9) and none of their last seven on the road (D1, L6), losing their last five.
Head-to-Head History
Madrid have won two of the four previous H2Hs (D1, L1) although they did lose both matches they played against German opposition last term. Leipzig are winless in their last three visits to Spanish sides (D1, L2).
Hot Stats and Streaks
Madrid’s last five fixtures produced an average of 1.6 goals per game after the 75th minute.
Eight of Madrid’s last ten UCL home fixtures produced exactly three goals.
At least 14 corners were taken in four of Leipzig’s last five games.
Leipzig have only drawn one of their 11 UCL away games played on a Wednesday, although it was here in March 2024 (W4, L6).
Key Players to Watch and Missing Players
Arda Güler set up two Madrid goals against Roma before scoring against Sevilla, while he also has four goal contributions (G2, A2) across his last two UCL appearances. Brajan Gruda opened the scoring in each of his last three goalscoring outings for Leipzig, including against PSV on matchday two (W 1-0).
Madrid remain without Raúl Asencio, Ferland Mendy and Rodrygo, while Marc Guiu and Assan Ouédraogo are sidelined for Leipzig.
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Betting Analysis
With the hosts on a solid winning run and imperious at home and Leipzig in disarray on the road, backing Madrid to win by a -2 handicap could be worth thinking about.
Author: John Pennington