France look to secure their place in the quarter-finals of the UEFA Nations League (UNL) as they host a Turkey side looking for a surprise result to avoid automatic relegation to League B.
Match News and Current Form
France would already have wrapped up top spot had they not surrendered the lead in a 3-1 defeat to Italy on Thursday, but because of that defeat, the Italians now join them on ten points and sit above by virtue of their superior H2H record. With Belgium waiting in the wings on nine points, it’s a three-way shootout for the top two spots in Group A1, and Les Bleus know they can secure one of those two berths by simply avoiding defeat here. A failure to do that here seems incomprehensible for a France side who were unbeaten in nine UNL group stage outings before the Italy defeat (W7, D2) and haven’t lost a competitive game on home soil since September 2024.
Turkey will be glad to see the back of this UNL campaign after a 2-1 defeat to Belgium on Thursday consigned them to a bottom-place finish in Group A1. The restructuring of this tournament means that finishing bottom doesn’t automatically assure the Crescent-Stars of relegation, but anything other than a win will likely prove insufficient for their chances of staving off automatic demotion. Five defeats from as many games in this cycle form part of a wider run of seven losses in eight matches for Turkey (W1), and adding to that loss tally here would see them become the first side since Iceland in 2020/21 to lose all six of their games in a single League A cycle.
Head-to-Head History
After winning the reverse fixture 1-0, France have now won five of seven historical H2Hs (D1, L1), although the last time they hosted Turkey they were held to a 1-1 draw.
Hot Stats and Streaks
Ten of the 13 goals in France’s UNL games this campaign arrived after half-time.
The away side on the day scored exactly once in all five of France’s UNL games in this cycle.
Turkey have conceded seven goals before the half-hour mark in this UNL cycle.
Turkey trailed at half-time in four of their last five UNL games (HT: D1).
Key Players to Watch and Missing Players
France’s Désiré Doué contributed to three goals in their last UNL home outing (G1, A2), with his last three international strikes arriving after the 55th minute. Turkey’s Uğurcan Çakır has been a busy man in this UNL campaign, making 3+ saves in all four of his appearances.
France hope to have Kylian Mbappé available again after he missed the Italy game, while Ozan Kabak is suspended for Turkey.
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Betting Analysis
Turkey’s form in this cycle and tendency to start slowly point towards France/France in the half-time/full-time market being a solid choice.
Author: Chris Wilson