After an emphatic win on matchday one, Finland could strengthen their promotion chances in Group C1 of the UEFA Nations League (UNL) with a win over Belarus, who lost at the weekend.
Match News and Current Form
Finland put seven goals past the world’s lowest-ranked nation San Marino on Saturday to record their biggest-ever competitive away win and start their UNL campaign on a high. The result also ended a three-game losing streak and halted their run of six consecutive defeats in this competition, all of which came in League B in the previous cycle and resulted in relegation. Jacob Friis’ men now target back-to-back competitive wins for the first time since November 2023, and a run of three wins across their last four home fixtures (L1) suggests the Eagle-owls are more than capable of ending that wait.
Belarus conceded twice in the first half to go down 2-0 to Albania on Saturday in a disappointing start to their fourth consecutive UNL League C campaign. It was Viktor Goncharenko’s first defeat as manager (W3, D1), but extended their miserable winless run in competitive action to 11 matches (D5, L6). The White Wings need to improve at the back having kept just two clean sheets in their last 13 games, though their last shutout did come on the road against Cyprus in March as part of a three-match unbeaten away run (W2, D1) prior to the Albania defeat.
Head-to-Head History
Finland are unbeaten in five previous H2Hs (W3, D2) with this set to be the first since 2018. The last four H2Hs all produced under 2.5 goals.
Hot Stats and Streaks
Only two of Finland’s last eight UNL matches saw both teams score.
Finland scored exactly once in five of their last seven home matches in this competition.
Twelve of Belarus’ last 13 UNL games produced under 2.5 goals.
Belarus conceded 2+ goals in seven of their last nine competitive matches.
Key Players to Watch and Missing Players
Adrian Svanbäck scored once and assisted twice in Finland’s win over San Marino and has directly contributed to seven goals in his last seven matches for club and country (G3, A4). Maks Ebong could look to contribute late for Belarus here as his last four international goals have come on the road, with three of those arriving beyond the hour mark.
Leo Walta went off injured in Finland’s victory over San Marino, while Belarus look to have escaped any major injury issues.
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Betting Analysis
Finland are unlikely to find this as easy as their matchday one fixture, and with the visitors often involved in low-scoring affairs, the door is open for an under 2.5 goals outcome.
Author: Sridhar Bhamidi