Mainz seek a first home league win of the season against Bayern Munich, who return to the scene of their last Bundesliga defeat on the road, almost two years ago.
Match News and Current Form
Mainz’s promising start to the season has unravelled through back-to-back league defeats to Werder Bremen (3-2) and Elversberg (4-1) either side of a surprise DFB-Pokal exit to second-tier Bochum. Head coach Urs Fischer and captain Silvan Widmer criticised repeated defensive lapses and a lack of fight after their latest setback, so they’ll be expecting a strong response, although their struggles at Mewa Park make that a daunting prospect. Winless here in the Bundesliga this season (D1, L3), conceding ten times in the process, the 05ers are now without a home league victory in seven attempts (D1, L6), a run that includes a 4-3 defeat in last season’s corresponding fixture.
Bayern finished the last matchday level on points with Dortmund at the top (W5, D3) after drawing 2-2 with their rivals in Der Klassiker last weekend, suggesting a genuine title fight could be brewing. The reigning champions will take some stopping having netted a league-high 27 Bundesliga goals so far, while they’re yet to lose in any competition this season (W10, D5). Vincent Kompany’s men are unbeaten in a staggering 30 successive Bundesliga away matches (W22, D8), just three short of their all-time record, while another tough win on the road against Atlético Madrid (2-0) in the UEFA Champions League on Tuesday highlighted their travelling comfort yet further.
Head-to-Head History
Mainz have won just one of the last seven H2Hs (D1, L5), but that victory was here in December 2024, when they were the last team to beat Bayern at home in the league. None of the last 20 meetings they hosted were drawn (Bayern: W14, L6).
Hot Stats and Streaks
Mainz have conceded the opener inside 15 minutes in five of their last six Bundesliga games.
Mainz conceded 3+ goals in five of their last six home league fixtures.
Bayern have conceded just once before half-time in the Bundesliga this term.
There were over 10.5 corners in all four of Bayern’s away league matches this season.
Key Players to Watch and Missing Players
Phillip Tietz leads the way for Mainz this season with five Bundesliga goals, while four of his last seven league goals arrived before the 25th minute. Bayern defender Dayot Upamecano has netted in his last two Bundesliga outings and Bayern have never lost a league game he scored in (W6, D2).
Phillipp Mwene and Stefan Posch are both suspended for Mainz. Bayern lost Ismael Saibari and Serge Gnabry to injuries in last week’s game against Dortmund.
Betting Analysis
Bayern are overwhelming favourites to win, but as Mainz scored in three of their four home league matches this term, it’s worth considering backing Bayern to win and both teams to score.
Author: John Pennington